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UAMS Covid-19 study for October



Arkansas – The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences recently conducted three studies over COVID-19 in Arkansas.

The assessments focused on the short-term forecasts of confirmed cases, deaths, and hospitalizations; the mid-term forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths; and the impact of COVID-19 among Arkansas counties by race/ethnicity and age.

All assessments were developed using COVID-19 data from the Arkansas Department of Health through September 6. The results exclude cases identified with antigen tests.

The mid-term forecast predicts COVID-19 cases will continue to rapidly increase through the end of October, increasing by more than 40,000 cases.

The SEIR model shows a prediction of more than 2,000 COVID-19 deaths in Arkansas by October 31.

According to UAMS, the mid-term forecast “are usually fairly reliable and our confidence in them is fairly high.”

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